Unexpected but still precarious resilience

Published on 25 July 2013 at 14:53

Cover

“End of recession in Europe,” proclaims the Berliner Zeitung. The German daily bases its optimistic pronouncement on the latest purchasing managers’ index, a survey of 3,000 companies in Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Ireland, Greece and the Netherlands, which is used to forecast economic trends.

The index for the Eurozone, based on a host of indicators including output and orders received to date, hit 50.4 points in June 2013 as against 45.1 points in June 2012. This comes as “a surprise”, admits the Berliner Zeitung, which goes on to explain that “several factors indicate that the economies in the countries of southern Europe are also going to rebound and that the disparity between the relatively stable north of Europe and the weak south is slowly coming to an end”.

The Financial Times says the figures show the EU’s “unexpected resilience” to the sluggish growth of China, a key export market for Germany. The business daily continues –

Receive the best of European journalism straight to your inbox every Thursday

The data make it more likely that the European Central Bank will hold steady in its policy stance. This month it adopted its first “forward guidance” – a pledge to keep rates low for the time being – and said it was ready to cut further if economic data deteriorated.

Nevertheless, warns Les Echos, “the rating agencies are not yet finished chastening the Eurozone countries”. The French business daily adds that

the ratings of 14 out of the 17 Eurozone countries are showing a downward trend at one agency at least. Belgium, Italy and Spain are the most likely candidates for an imminent downgrade. [...] Moody’s and S&P can actually relegate Spanish debt to the “speculative” category overnight, which would induce investors to pull out.

Tags

Was this article useful? If so we are delighted!

It is freely available because we believe that the right to free and independent information is essential for democracy. But this right is not guaranteed forever, and independence comes at a cost. We need your support in order to continue publishing independent, multilingual news for all Europeans.

Discover our subscription offers and their exclusive benefits and become a member of our community now!

Are you a news organisation, a business, an association or a foundation? Check out our bespoke editorial and translation services.

Support independent European journalism

European democracy needs independent media. Join our community!

On the same topic